Publication Details

Abstract

General notes on prediction. By prediction, the author understands an operation, by means e[ which, on the basis, of a known law. (of a part of the world and motion of that part) the unknown is being defined (the unknown part of the world or motion of that part). The main purpose of a prediction is to attain knowledge, define the properties of the predicted (i. e. not yet known) phenomenon and enable to choose methods of its cognition and possibly to prepare its practical application A known law, expressed by a concept, represents a connecting link between the known and the predicted, determines the way of prediction, is a predictive instruction. The role of the latter may be played by any scientific concept. Various predictive potencies of concept exist as dependent on the nature of the particular concept, its contents and extent, its developmental level. If, for instance, the concept of causality is used as the predictive instruction, a specific kind of prediction takes place, i. e., causal prediction. If there exist more concepts of causality, more various forms of causal prediction may also exist differing from each other by their properties. To support this assertion the author employs two different concepts of causality as they occurred in the history of thought.
(Some) properties of causal of causality: prediction following from the widely used traditional concept of causality:
a) Phenomenon C causes and precedes another phenomenon E. The cause always is external towards the effect: it follows that a really causal prediction depends on absolute knowledge.
b) Causal prediction is reduced to the prediction of states as functions of time, while a possibility of principle exists to predict events regardless of their distance in time. Something is predicted to happen, in a given time interval, without actual causal knowledge why it will happen.
c) The above concept does not make it possible to predict qualitative changes. According to it no qualities arise. If any qualitative changes exist, they cannot be either explained or predicted by that concept.
(Some) properties of causal prediction as following from the concept „causa sui" :
a) If there is „causa sui“, a postulate of the spirit with absolute knowledge is unnecessary for causal prediction. Causal prediction does not depend on the knowledge of an infinite causal sequence or its arbitrarily chosen beginning, but on the knowledge of the inner source of the causal change.
b) Causal prediction! of events, without regard to their distance in time, is impossible not owing to subjective imperfection of man but because events are not objectively determined for such periods. The concrete future is causally determined and predicted.
c) It follows from a) and b) that „the nearest“ qualitative change is causally determined and predictable. The world is determined only as far as it is being realised and vice versa.